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Abductive Reasoning


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What is abductive reasoning?


Another form of scientific reasoning that diverges from inductive and deductive reasoning is called abductive. Abductive reasoning is a form of logic that starts with an incomplete set of observations and proceeds to the likeliest possible explanation for that data, according to Butte College in Oroville, California. 

It is based on making and testing hypotheses using the best information available. It often entails making an educated guess after observing a phenomenon for which there is no clear explanation. 

For example, a person walks into their living room and finds torn-up papers all over the floor. The person's dog has been alone in the apartment all day. The person concludes that the dog tore up the papers because it is the most likely scenario. It's possible that a family member with a key to the apartment swung by and destroyed the papers, or it may have been done by the landlord. But the dog theory is the most likely conclusion based on the data at hand. 

Abductive reasoning is useful for forming hypotheses to be tested. For instance, abductive reasoning is used by doctors when they're assessing which ailment a patient likely has based on their symptoms. They then check which potential diagnosis is correct using medical tests. Jurors also use abductive reasoning to make decisions based on the select evidence presented to them by lawyers and witnesses.

Related: What is Occam's razor?  

Abductive reasoning examples


Here are some examples of abductive reasoning:


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Observation: The grass is wet outside when you get up in the morning, but you haven't recently watered the lawn.
Best-guess explanation: It likely rained last night.

 
Observation: At a restaurant, you see a bag and a half-eaten sandwich at an empty table.
Best-guess explanation: The table's occupant is probably in the restroom.

Observation: You enter a basketball court and see a group of people in red shirts celebrating while another group in blue shirts sulks.
Best-guess explanation: The red team probably just beat the blue team in a game.

Editor's note: This article was updated on March 7, 2024.